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A branch of economic thought known as ‘efficient market theory’ hypothesizes that the stock market is almost perfectly efficient in the sense that asset values are almost perfectly priced when factoring in all known information. Taking this theory to the extreme would mean that a monkey randomly choosing stocks would do no better or worse on average than a Wall Street guru.
Many people subscribe to this theory. Their main reasoning is that there are so many knowledgeable people that actively invest in stocks (think head fund managers, mutual fund managers, private equity guys, etc.) that all stocks are accurately valued. The only way to make more money in the stock market, or any aasset class for that matter, is to take on more risk. Otherwise, it’s futile to attempt to try to pick stocks since you won’t find any good deals (other people would have already found them and bid up the stock’s price).
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